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FOX
Oct 31, 2012 5:30am EDT
only gop governor in sandy's path to hear from obama....swing state governors were also on a call tuesday.a porrnow - the politiis of sandy are playing out under the radar...democrats are parning that rooney will slash federal disaster relief - even get rid of fema...basing that on a cnn debate last yearrwhen romney said the federal role should be limited during disaster, anddthe states and even the prrvate sector hould have more power.romney wws asked multiple timee tuesday fema, but he didn'' answee. & romnny's campaiin insists he would ot eliminate femaa- an agency currently ggtting praise from gop governors for iis response t hurriccae sandy.dana bash, cnn, washiigton. rrbinson to calllin to claim - his 100 dollarr issagiftcard. if he doesn't call we'll draw anothee name in just 10 minutes. minutes.and next... the ravens ((break 33)ing the team.y... coming up n our 6 o'clock hour... we're still waiting to pear from shawn robinson... call in to laim your 110 dollar visa giftcard.we'll doesn't claim his prize... after the break. grounded... due to weather.the hundreds of thousan
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 7:00am PDT
of the president obama has just a one-point lead among likely voters. three new swing state polls show the president still in the lead, although with a margin that is shrinking in florida, virginia and ohio. and instead of campaigning, the president went to the red cross in washington, d.c., yesterday. >> this is a tough time for a lot of people. millions of folks all across the eastern seaboard. but america is tougher. and we're tougher because we pull together, we leave nobody behind, we make sure that we respond as a nation and remind ourselves that whenever an american is in need, all of us stand together to make sure that we're providing the help that's necessary. >> mitt romney will resume a full campaign schedule today, stumping in florida. he held a disaster relief event yesterday in ohio. >> we've got people right now that are having some hard times because of this terrible hurricane and the storm that followed it, and your generosity will make a difference. so i want to thank you. >> i want to bring in usa today's washington bureau chief susan page. maureen dowd writes t
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 10:00am EDT
where president obama needs to go right now. it reminds me of the stated reason that george w. bush didn't land in new orleans right after hurricane katrina. he didn't want to get in the way of some of the cleanup. of course that disaster response didn't go as well as it looks like president obama is handling the response happening this time. but there is the danger dealing with secret service logistics at a time when regular logistics, just living every day life, becomes incredibly hard. >> i think it's worth pointing out certainly the obama campaign probably didn't imagine the extent. warmth of the words that chris christie has for the president, but mitt romney held his disaster relief event in ohio yesterday. the question that dogged him that he would not answer was about fema. take a listen. >> governor, what should fema's role be? governor, would you eliminate fema if you were president? >> well, it's either 11 or 14 times, depending on whose count you believe. the campaign released a statement saying that romney would not abolish fema but, quote, governor romney believes that
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 7:00pm EDT
here. either the romney campaign sees an opening in three states that look like obama states or trying to get obama campaign to spend money in those states or maybe both. what is it? >> talking about three predominantly blue states won by president obama where the polls have always trended towards democrats this year. not towards mr. romney and the g.o.p. pennsylvania, minnesota, and michigan. romney's home state. in the last few days, there have been a handful of polls that the gap has narrowed and romney made ground and come within the margin of error in those states and now he has begun to advertise. these are states the obama campaign is very very confident about. david action sell rod said he would shave his mustache off if he lost any of them. that's a staches has had for 40 years. tough hurdle for mr. romney to clear in ohio. in the last 48 hours or so there have been seven polls. all of them have suggested that mr. obama is up within the margin of error by a couple of points on mitt romney. most scenarios, romney can't win without winning here in florida as well as without ohio
FOX
Oct 31, 2012 5:00pm EDT
sussending t mps cu t presidential caadidates are heeding back to the key states. states. president obama visited fema peadquarters in dc before &pheadiig to new jerseyo see the storm damage up clooe. republicagoovrnoo chris chhiitie..... a romn est'reseth hra t storr. meanwhile, ggverror in florida today... he paused his campaign to avoid aearing partisan in a national crisis... but political expertt say that enough time as passed... tos:e snol republican nominee ffr that like just like the rest of us are showing uu at our jobs." a$ and the timing might be right ffr romney ... nnw almost tiee with the presiient in a new quiinipiac poll ffr lw.. netate r.omar. of... west virginia. virginia.thht's becausee.. decoratiins are buried ...under 2 feet of snow...//.the state was poondedd.. by... izzard-like ponditions.../// so... instead oo jack-o-lanterns.... / innthe halloween spirit... by puttinmasks. onow rl old you that bge has restored power to about 80 percent of those whh lost it in the storm. the day...are you sstisfied of wi b-g-e'sespottsa f facebooo page tonight. ur go to fox-baltimore dot c
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 5:00pm EDT
storyline while obama is ahead in early voting. now we know that isn't true. particularly in states like ohio, florida, ohio -- >> dana: nevada. >> andrea: same thing, nevada. ohio fewer dems voted in ohio compared to 2008. 30,000 more republicans have voted. if obama had that lead with mccain and long at 2008, but only led by three points with likely voters romney leads the likely voters by five points. he won bison overall. if you look at the same panorama, it's all over. >> bob: in reality, you talk about the final vote in 2008 versus a week left to go to vote. people who vote early. you have to separate absenteeism from early voting. two separate things. people who vote early are senior citizens and they normally do. >> andrea: who leads with senior citizens? mitt romney leads. >> bob: right. >> andrea: independent and women. 3-point turnout advantage this time around swayed ten points to -- >> bob: you are taking something on election day when they did the count and doing seven things out. >> andrea: same exact date. 'canes is a political roundup, can we get to eric? >> eric: obama
FOX Business
Oct 31, 2012 7:00pm EDT
, state after state they went for obama in 08, now mitt romney n 12, you see this in florida, nation alltel graph in new hampshire, in that state it was obama by 9 points in 2008, he is ahead by one now. you see it in state after state, momentum is with romney. lou: real clear politics does something interesting, compare, poll, polls for today, that poll to 2004, 2008, 2008, at this juncture, president then senator obama was running six and a half points ahead of senator mccain, in 2004, bush had a one and a half point lead on senator kerry, is that instructive or just sort of an amusing glimpse at history. >> political junkies, heard those were margins of 2004, and 8 for those who like to say national polling does not amount to much this is accurate. it is the state by state polls, that is less productive. but i make a basic point about the storm, i know a lot of democrats, if you go to liberal blogs, they are all holding hands, say it will be okay, they are trying to make a political point to of the way that president is responding to the hurricane. the average american, looks at w
CSPAN
Oct 31, 2012 8:30am EDT
. he will run a little bit ahead of president obama in the state. he appeals to some voters that obama does not appeal to simply because he's been there along time. i think brown ends up being safe. bill nelson has survived an onslaught of more than $20 million in outside ad spending. he's running against representative connie mack. while mack has had the potential to make it real contest, he has not. nelson is running it pretty close, six. . that's our it will end up on election day,. virginia was tied for very long time. there were 6000 poles in a row that showed it at a tie. -- there were 6000 polls in a row that showed it at a tie. we did the washington post poll that showed romney leading by a much larger number of earlier this week i do and think tim kaine is ahead by 3 points. on election day, this will be really close contest. i still give tim kaine the edge, a tort allen is not dead by any means. host: if you are interested in hearing from those candidates, we have covered many of the debates in the closely contested senate races. c-span.org to find them. reid wilson, ed
FOX News
Oct 30, 2012 5:00pm PDT
northeast. which is obama country. we expect obama to carry every state in the northeast with the exception of new hampshire. pennsylvania, believe me, pennsylvania is in play obama campaign was counting on a lot of those negative ads. people aren't going to be paying attention to them because that storm is ripping right through that state right right now. >> absolutely. >> three days of ads in pennsylvania. all of that the psychology, the money at the federal level that's going to have to be used to restore the northeast, we're talking billions and billions of dollars. it just heightens the fact we don't have enough money to upgrade our electrical grid in this country we're 40 years behind where we should be there. this smentd going to effect the election but it does make you think that 800 billion-dollar stimulus which sprinkle hurled out of airplanes and helicopters and left not a trace ended up in solyndra and other places. imagine if we had single project like highway hour picking the interstate highway system and it had been the electrical grid or burying every wire in the c
CNBC
Oct 31, 2012 7:00pm EDT
swing states. this is a perfect storm that hit mitt romney this week. it showed barack obama as a commander in chief. the gallup poll was knocked off. it was his best poll. it showed the two competing businesses. not only did you have chris christie out there, but you also have bob mcdonnell of west virginia, another republican surrogate, who said the obama administration's response has been incredibly fast. >> i wouldn't go that far. they came in separately and they left separately. but sometimes governors have to do what governors do and presidents have to do what presidents do. i get that. and i think for the moment, your man probably got some. john, i want to ask you, i've been reading in the newspapers -- you correct me if i'm wrong. your superpack and other republican super packs have put $4 million into pennsylvania. team obama, only $625,000. for $4 million, jonathan, you want a rate of return better than a utility executive. you want to actually win the race in that state. >> we wouldn't be spending the money if we didn't think that there were real opportunities in michig
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 2:00pm PDT
double digit leads for obama. now within 3 to 4% for obama. what states just come through. i beg you. >> dana: it's amazing thing to think somebody had a mustache for 40 years. that is a long time. his wife might not have met him. >> greg: you know what is thereunder? >> dana: i don't want to know. >> greg: tattoo. >> andrea: also had mustache for a long time. >> dana: joe trippi said he would shave his head for the same reason. >> bob: thigh are not losing those three states. if they do it's a landslide. you talk about the gallup number, today the cbs/"new york times" numbers came out. three swing states, obama leads by one. in ohio, he leads by five. in virginia, he leads by two. this momentum by romney is all concocted and the press fell for it. dais i didn't call on you but you -- >> dana: i didn't call on you but you went anyway so i'll take the last word. one poll that came out yesterday that was interest, the national public radio teamed up resurgent republic to talk about the independent voters. if we go back eight months ago on the program to say what will matter in the elec
CBS
Oct 31, 2012 4:16am EDT
the white house, president obama has been calling the governors of storm ravaged states and one of romney's key supporters has been praising the president's leadership. >> his cooperation has been great with fema here on the ground and our intelligence center and the cooperation from the president of the united states has been outstanding. he deserves great credit. >> reporter: while the president remains in washington, he's getting help on the campaign trail from former president bill clinton. >> i have worked very hard in this election and i'm not running for anything. >> reporter: clinton was in minnesota tuesday, a state where the race is tightening. he is expected to campaign in six battleground states for president obama before election day. tara mergener for cbs news, the white house. >>> goor romney pls to be back on the campaign trail today with a swing through florida. >>> early voting in the 2012 election was suspended for two days because of sandy. it will resume today in maryland at 8:00 a.m. and run until 9:00 p.m. and will be conducted in maryland until friday of thi
ABC
Oct 31, 2012 5:30pm EDT
sight to see, to see president obama traveling around the state with governor chris christie. you have to remember that chris christie is a top surrogate for mitt romney and the keynote speaker at the republican national convention. the president had this message for voters. >> we need to make sure that everybody whose lost a loved one know they're in our thoughts and prayers. we are here for you. we will follow up to make sure you get all the help you need until you rebuild. >> reporter: so far his team has said tomorrow he will be back on the trail and making stops in wisconsin, colorado and also nevada. >> so meanwhile, mitt romney resumes campaigning in the battleground of florida. seems like he's backing off the rhetoric a little bit. >> reporter: he's trying to strike this positive tone as he gets back out there on the campaign trail. today he has three different stops in that battleground of florida. he touched on the deviation along the east coast and didn't mention the opportunity to make a pitch to voters. >> 23 million people struggling to find a good job. this is something
FOX News
Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm EDT
a big problem for obama. >> ohio. the ever important state. there is an ad that says that obama's chrysler deal undermines u.s. workers. gm's ceo came out and said that the latest romney ad is politics at its worst this, is going to play out before voters in ohio. your thoughts on this? >> i was in ohio yesterday. ways in hamilton county, cincinnati then over in lebanon, and then, over in delaware county. goit a good taste of southwestern ohio. last time, obama carried ohio. it is rob portman's base. they're very, very proud of them. republicans told me they believe they're going to carry hamilton county maybe by 23,000 votes. that would be a swing of 50,000 votes by itself that would guarantee carrying ohio. people in lebanon and warren county very republican. tremendously enthusiastic. they're going to vote bigger than they voted last time for mccain. in delaware county it was a very rural area we were in. i couldn't find any obama voters. obama is going to be competitive. he's going to have cleveland and areas around dayton. i think ohio probably going to end up electing josh l
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 2:00pm PDT
president obama has a 12-point lead in the battleground states, where it matters. with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >>> i will come on "morning joe" and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. that's because the romney camp and their cohorts in the super pac world announce they're now going to start advertising there. they're pouring in over 4 million bucks in pennsylvania, 2 million in michigan, and about $1 million in minnesota. the obama campaign says they're
CBS
Oct 31, 2012 4:00am PDT
times" poll shows president obama maintaining a five point edge in ohio but in the swing states of florida and virginia his lead is shrinking. the race is a dead heat. mitt romney and president obama locked in a statistical tie. sandy up ended the race. >> president obama was knocked off the campaign trail by the storm, cancelling an appearance today in the critical swing state of ohio. on tuesday he visited the red cross headquarters in washington. >> my message to the federal government, no bureaucracy, no red tape, get resources where they are needed as fast as possible as hard as possible and for the duration. >> the president was replaced on the stump by a former commander-in-chief bill clinton. >> obama is far more likely to lift the middle class and give the poor a chance to work their way into it. >> president clinton appeared at a rally in minnesota. recent polls showed president obama's lead is shrinking. clinton made a stop in colorado another state that candidates are fighting hard to win. >> and your generosity this morning touches my heart. >> mitt romney took a break
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 9:00am PDT
a lead in swing states including florida, virginia and in ohio obama leads romney 50 to 45% among likely voters. he also has a huge advantage when it comes to early voters. among those who have already cast their ballots in the state, 60% of ohioans favor the president while only 34% voted for romney. meanwhile, team romney is pumping cash into states not expected to be competitive at this stage. the governor's campaign says it is seeing a resurgence in michigan, pennsylvania, and minnesota. the obama campaign is pouring cold water on that very theory saying it shows signs of a struggling romney campaign. quote, romney campaign desperate. putting up ads in pennsylvania and minnesota, prove he's struggling to find a new path to 270. that prompted the romney campaign to respond with a tweet of its own, spokesman ryan williams, quote, nervous. obama campaign says minnesota and pennsylvania aren't battlegrounds but running more than 1.1 million in ads there. the baaing and forth on twitter, ben. who to believe. i'll say this. minnesota is a blue state that bill clinton did visit not a
CSPAN
Oct 31, 2012 5:00pm EDT
affordable care act that president obama pushed is modeled on that. a lot of states will be following that model. that is with the affordable care beds. it is a federal mandate. >> we're out of time and we will move to the next topic. i'm going to put this to you. beyond the governor's office there is a lot of chatter about longevity in this office should you win a second term. from -- should there be a shift in the congressional delegation? have been touted as a leader. it spoke of your party's convention. i know that your opponent has talked about a pledge. what i want to know because clearly if you are reelected you're a lame-duck. you have the four years and that is it. what is your plan beyond the next four years? >> i love this job. we have significant work still to do and put people back to work to continue to improve schools. to improve the state all it can be. i cannot wait to get to work and spend every day with the next four years doing exactly that. beyond that i do not have plans. will we get to 2016 my wife and i who is out there somewhere, we will talk about what comes
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 3:00pm EDT
new polls in three states that were traditionally democrats leaning obama, and president obama won in 2008: pennsylvania, minnesota, and michigan. michigan, of course, is romney's native state and polls suggest obama has the lead but mitt romney has closed the gap to the margin of error. obama campaigns scoffs at this and senior obama advisor axelrod said if they lost any of those he would shave off his mustache of 40 years but mitt romney has considered headed there a sign they think the playing field is expanding beyond the seven states that have been hotly contested and present the romney campaign opportunity to put obama on defense and have the offense ease the path to 270. very, very close, six days left, polls suggest everything is tight and no way to know who has the edge. so, no time for napping, either. >>shepard: i was hoping you got a nap while everyone else was working. >>carl: not a chance. romney is staying busy. >>shepard: thank you, carl cameron. massive gridlock around new york city, 4.3 million people use the subways and there is no subway. commuters returned to w
FOX News
Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm PDT
. the ever important state. there is an ad that says that obama's chrysler deal undermines u.s. workers. gm's ceo came out and said that the latest romney ad is politics at its worst this, is going to play out before voters in ohio. your thoughts on this? >> i was in ohio yesterday. ways in hamilton county, cincinnati then over in lebanon, and then, over in delaware county. goit a good taste of southwestern ohio. last time, obama carried ohio. it is rob portman's base. they're very, very proud of them. republicans told me they believe they're going to carry hamilton county maybe by 23,000 votes. that would be a swing of 50,000 votes by itself that would guarantee carrying ohio. people in lebanon and warren county very republican. tremendously enthusiastic. they're going to vote bigger than they voted last time for mccain. in delaware county it was a very rural area we were in. i couldn't find any obama voters. obama is going to be competitive. he's going to have cleveland and areas around dayton. i think ohio probably going to end up electing josh landel to the senate. all ener
CW
Oct 30, 2012 10:00pm PDT
heart. >> reporter: from the white house president obama has been calling the governors of storm- ravaged states. one of romney's key supporters has been praising the president's leadership. >> cooperation has been great here on the ground. and the cooperation from the president of the united states has been outstanding. he deserves great credit. >> reporter: while the president remains in washington he's getting help on the campaign trail from former president bill clinton. >> i have worked very hard in this election and i'm not running for anything. >> reporter: clinton was in minnesota tuesday, a state where the race is tightening. he's expected to campaign in six battleground states for president obama before election day. >> social media may hold the key to identifying whoever smashed a muni bus in the riots following the giants world series win. how facebook is turning up the heat on this viral vandal. elizabeth. >> reporter: they're doing sound checks here at civic center plaza. as they prepare for tomorrow's big giants parade, san francisco police department have made an
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 12:00pm PDT
states and ohio, romney colorado. give obama ohio and new hampshire. i think the point i want to make about this map is a broader one and it's a criticism and an expression of bafflement about the romney campaign strategy. if you look at that map, to win to get to 270, they have to win virginia, florida, north carolina. got to win colorado. putting that together, pick off ohio or some combination of wisconsin and plus new hampshire, iowa, nevada. a combination there and the polls out of ohio and wisconsin, not looking good for romney. to me the issue is this. there are states on the map that could have been competitive. oregon, michigan, minnesota, pennsylvania and even maybe where obama had big margins in 2008 like 15, 16-point margins but you have to go back to 2004 to see, you know, a three-point race in minnesota. a three-point race in michigan. these are states, there's a lot of flexibility in these states. if romney with all the money he had and republicans had, outside money, if they had targeted the states early with advertising and then with field work, too, i think it would
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 9:00am EDT
pressure on the president in these states while the obama campaign would like to wish it's 2008. the reality is they are forced to play some defense in more states that they once believed were safer for the president. the obama campaign is taking the threat seriously enough that they sent president clinton to minnesota tuesday. they're buying airtime in all three states that romney would like to make xcompetitive. but the president's campaign, they called romney's move desperate. in a video released yesterday, the race was framed to his volunteers this way. >> we are ahead or tied in every single battleground state. that means mitt romney has to win not only the tossups but a couple states where we have a clear lead to have any chance of winning the presidency. >> messina ran through the battleground states but explicitly did not mention michigan or minnesota. he says, quote, they are throwing money at states where they never built an organization and have been losing for two years. the romney campaign and its allies' decision to go up with advertising in michigan, pennsylvania, and
PBS
Oct 31, 2012 3:00pm PDT
obama won this state handily in 2008 he was well ahead here this year until the first debate, when mitt romney gained ground. >> when mitt romney led bain, hundreds of plants, factories, and stores were shuttered. workers saw their wages slashed, their jobs sent overseas. >> look at the evidence of the last four years. under the president's policies, middle income americans have been buried. hay ear just being crushed. >> reporter: for local citizens that's meant a flood of ads, stuffed mailboxes, thousands of phone calls and knocks on their doors. by one recent count, this area is the most saturated political market in the nation. the national campaign for the presidency has come down to a battle for a relatively small number of swing counties and brown county here is one of them for the competing parties, everything now depends on organization, the so-called ground game. ben sparks is communication director for the romney campaign in wisconsin. >> the key to winning races in wisconsin is enthusiasm and voter intensity. in 2010, when republicans had historic electoral gains throug
Current
Oct 30, 2012 7:00pm PDT
no mistake the obama and the romney war rooms are looking at the nine critical swing states from florida to nevada. this is a very close race. every state matters including iowa and its six electoral votes. i want to talk about that for a second because the latest poll from iowa has president obama leading 50% to 46%. that still is within the gravis marketing survey 4-point margin of error. it is a state that the obama war room won four years ago. it needs to keep out of romney's hands to better its odds of winning re-election. for more perspective on the final seven days of the campaign, we're going to turn to one of our favorite political reporters, carla mayor nucci. it was interesting because of course if mitt romney does not win ohio, i mean, he has to win iowa. >> this has been a battleground for how long now? those early voting -- early voting. >> jennifer: it is only six electoral votes. early voting in iowa is largely in the president's favor. >> same thing in colorado. the obama campaign has that ground game down. particularly, i went door-to-door with latino canvas wor
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 11:00am EDT
, states that david axelrod, the obama campaign strategist, just was on a conference call with reporters saying he bets his mustache that romney won't win any of those three states. so you look at the romney campaign spending resources in places like wisconsin, sending paul ryan to wisconsin to me does not project a campaign that thinks it's winning. they should put everything they have got into ohio. yesterday there was that quasicampaign/relief effort. they got a little burned for it because it was seen for what it was, a campaign event, but that's where they need to double down. because barack obama if he wins ohio, he could lose virginia and florida and still win. >> they have been doubling down. they spent all of this time in ohio and because of sandy spent more time in ohio. but if we look at early voting polling that is coming out of ohio and then florida, the president leads. is it the obama ground game that's really pushing them ahead? >> it's the obama ground game. ironically it's also the republican party. when i was in ohio and talked to voters there and called peop
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 12:00pm PDT
: president obama will return to the campaign trail tomorrow with evens in three battleground states and governor romney is crisscrossing the battle ground state of florida today. he is beginning speeching by urging americans to donate to the storm relief effort. >> they are going through trauma in a major part of the country the kind of trauma you have experienced here in florida more than once and it is interesting to see how people come together in a circumstance like this. >>shepard: he is right. both put their campaigns on hold as sandy slammed into the coast. yesterday, governor romney spoke with what agoers describe add a storm relief event in ohio but he back in florida today as i mentioned where the presidential race is neck and neck. carl cameron is live in karl gables florida. >>carl: they are back, mitt romney's hiatus ended after hurricane sandy and he has been cautiously but ramping up the rhetoric. there have been plenty of references to assist and encourage people to make disaster relief donations but the rhetoric has increased. he has not mentioned president obama by
FOX Business
Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm EDT
competitive as your state has become, if barack obama, ends up winning the state, it might be no small measure to what you have been doing? >> it could be, i think frankly the election will hinge on whether the people accept the last 4 yeers under president obama or think that i do we need to go in a different direction, we started our different direct here two years ago, not taxing our people more, spending within our means, not beyond. other republican governors that were elected in 2010 with me have been doing the same thing across the country. neil: that would be a kick, though, right, if turns out where, president maiden roads, -- inroads, a lot of swing states, many but not all, all republican governors. it is more than coincidental, is it not? >> i think it is, it is the vast majority of republican governors that have been able to turn this, in those areas the economy is growing we would like to see it to know to grow, we could we need a leadership change at the top. neil: you think, that governor romney is wasting his time, as much as you love your state, he love our state, cam
WHUT
Oct 31, 2012 3:00am EDT
: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right because the states are what we call the tipping point states that would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> as you know basically saying a poll is a paragraph of a moment in time. >> right. >> rose: period. >> uh-huh. >> rose: no prophecy from that. >> my understanding, what you say is, yes, no prophecy, but you can look and reference it to other times and with similar circumstances existed and then project forward. >> that's right, so and the way we look at it is the confidence should increase the closer you get to election day so if you look at polls in june, and june of 1988 michael dukakis was way ahead of bush, john kerry was ahead of gore, so polls in the spring and summer aren't very useful and you might look at what kind of economic conditions are
PBS
Oct 31, 2012 12:00pm PDT
? will obama have more of an advantage in the swing states with this ground game stuff we talked about than in other states, potentially, there years when the polls have been off, in 1980 jimmy carter was supposed to be in a close race with ronald reagan and lost in a landslide. >> rose: was that because there was a late minute switch to reagan or because they similar my did the polls badly? >> probably a combination of both, i think now polls use what are called likely voter models and do account for will persons actually vote? tha that was ls common this the 1980s and you had years where the polls would underestimate how much republican enthusiasm there might be, usually the republicans are more enthuse stic, a little easier to group and get pout to the polls than democrats are. >> rose: how do you factor in also this notion david brooks again, that said that somehow polls do not -- polls are often in error because they can't measure human behavior? >> well, polls do, it is kind of like any type of economic data, where if you look -- >> rose: human behavior? >> if you look at the bls
MSNBC
Oct 31, 2012 7:00pm EDT
, although it is a truly purple state, is leaning towards obama at this point in time. >> let's take a look at those three states. everybody will agree, are in hot pursuit right now. let's take a look at them. now, look at the three of the states. there's ohio. let's keep going. keep going. "the new york times" and cbs over mitt romney, ohio by five point. in virginia, the president has a two-point lead, 49-47. florida is the closest, president obama is up one point over romney, 48-47. so there you see it, erin, these states all show obama up. i'm wondering, is that a consistent mood? obviously, the romney people don't buy that? >> no, and look, we are seeing a little bit of a swing back toward president obama. one thing i will say about the storm, about sandy, is that president obama is going to be continuing to get positive national media coverage this week. and that could help independents swing back his direction. the thing i'll tell you about being on the ground here in ohio, chris, is that mitt romney is getting pounded by the local press in northern ohio, for that chrysler ad th
CNN
Oct 31, 2012 1:00am PDT
. >> reporter: christie wasn't the only gop governor in sandy's path to hear from obama. swing state governors of virginia and pennsylvania were also on a presidential call on tuesday. >> and dana joins me now. and as you said, dana, in your piece, the president will be with governor christie tomorrow in new jersey. obviously, we'll be covering that closely. there is some politicking going on kind of underneath the radar, isn't there? >> there is, of course, no surprise. in this case it's democrats that are really pushing a story that romney would slash federal disaster relief, even get rid of fema, and they're basing that primarily on a cnn debate last year during the republican primaries when romney said that the federal role should be limited during a disaster. he said that states, even the private sector should have more power. now, romney was asked multiple times today in ohio to clarify that position on fema, but he didn't answer. afterwards, romney's campaign insisted that he would not eliminate fema. that may be true, anderson, but romney's plan overall to reduce the deficit
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 8:00am PDT
virginia where a state mr. romney is closing the gap and says president obama is up two points in the quinnepiac poll, but there is the average from "real clear politics" survey says mr. romney is leading half a point. then there is ohio. ohio the romney campaign acknowledges it will be a battle down to the very last minute and they have been trailing in some polls. quinnepiac poll has romney down five points but the "real clear politics" average is 2.4 suggesting it is very, very close. the romney campaign arguing that the ground game will put them over the top and they're ready to win this. mr. romney today will unveil his final sprint which will start in ohio. i will have over 100 senators, congressman, governors, state and local officials around the country on stage with him and ready to fan out over the weekend to hit 11 key battleground states. finally, jenna, romney's last event of the campaign takes place monday night in new hampshire, the place where he has a vacation home, nashua the gait city, the "nashua telegraph" which endorsed barack obama in 2008, switched its allegian
FOX News
Oct 31, 2012 3:00am EDT
of the states that were strong obama like minnesota that are now in the lean obama column, and they have to send bill clinton out today to minnesota to try to help. >help. >> sean: i'm here to save my buddy, barack obama. >> the headlines coming out of that were so bad, i wouldn't have sent him in the first place. >> sean: here's the deal. they gotta send joe biden to pennsylvania because the polls are so close. michigan is tied, wisconsin is tied, colorado, romney is up, virginia he's up, florida he's up, and we have rasmussen now showing the moment ump has shifted in ohio. if i'm barack obama, there's no poll now moving in his direction, juan, and states that he won by huge margins, he's either tied or just slightly ahead. that's a problem for him. >> well, look. i don't think anyone debates the idea it's going to be a very close race, but the numbers you put out. >> sean: which ones? >> they're all sided. >> ask juan about the npr poll. >> go ahead, dana. >> let's talk about the npr poll. an 8-point swing? >> there's a margin of error, dana. hold on. dana was around in '08, i'm s
PBS
Oct 31, 2012 4:00pm PDT
. polls give obama a slight edge. some of the other states are close. nobody knows what will happen. what we do know is that romney had a little bit of momentum. he was closing gaps, then everything stopped and the election was put on hold. president obama, you can feel the momentum on his side right now. we will have to see how the election plays out. sandy, beyond being a natural disaster, will always be part of the american electoral history. >> sandy has blunted some of the more bitter partisanship. now. we have six days left until the elections. will we hear a different town when the present its back on the campaign trail? >> slightly different. the president will want to stay optimistic, not suddenly descend into taken some cheap shots or one liners. he is now playing commander in chief of an ongoing crisis. remember, this is not about a day when a storm hits. this will go on for weeks and months. i think you will have an optimistic tone for the president. mitt romney will be going after obama more through his sarah gets. he will have to discuss why there are better times ahea
CNN
Oct 31, 2012 6:00am PDT
state with president obama, a president he has praised for his administration's storm response. this is what he had to say to piers morgan. >> this is so much bigger than an election. this is the livelihood of the people of my state. what they expect me to do is get the job done. when someone asks me an honest question, i give an honest answer. how has the president been to deal with? he has been outstanding to deal with on this. i look forward to seeing him tomorrow. >> this is the same man who questioned the president's leadership at the republican national convention. >> we need politicians to care more about doing something and less about being something. it is time to end this era of absentee leadership in the oval office and send real leaders back to the white house. america needs mitt romney and paul ryan! and we need them right now. >> political analysts are confused. romney surrogate, fox and friends, tried to get christie to dial it back. >> is there any possibility that governor romney may go to new jersey to tour some of the damage with you? >> i have no idea, nor am i th
PBS
Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm EDT
. also to a state where they have been targeting for a year now, and as in 2008 the obama campaign has more people knocking on doors and making money calls, so the voter outreach things is why they may do better than say, ohio than in the state they haven't focused on like missouri. >> rose: we just went through hurricane sandy. >> yes. >> rose: what impact might it have? >> well, see this is where we are going more into major speculation and i want to be more careful. i think the general wisdom gom of the political science literature is that when there is some kind of a disaster, it is usually easier for the incumbent zero to occupy that space, that is a national function of government. >> rose: meaning that the incumbent gains something because he is in a seat of power and, therefore, he is even responding to an emergency. >> that obama can go and staley stay in washington, d.c. and monitor the disaster, right, and the press corps will treat that a as being appropriate and presidential strategy where romney goes and has. >> rose: a fund raiser. >> a fund raise never ohio and say it i
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